Today there's an 80 per cent chance of showers, including a possible thunderstorm

A severe weather warning has been issued for parts of Victoria, including a portion of the south-west, east of Hamilton.

A broad trough of low pressure over western Victoria is combining with a large high pressure system south-east of Tasmania, resulting in a humid easterly stream which will promote severe thunderstorm development today.

The bureau said severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours.

Locations which may be affected include Stawell, Ballarat, Bendigo, Echuca, Shepparton andMaryborough.

Archdale Junction, north-east of Ararat, has recorded 34.8mm of rainfall in the two hours to 11.30am.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Earlier: Today across the south-west will be humid and cloudy with the chance of morning fog.

There's a high 80 per cent chance of showers during the morning and afternoon and a possible thunderstorm during this afternoon or early evening.

Winds will be north-east to south-easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming northeasterly 20 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending easterly in the early afternoon.

Daytime maximum temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s, with Warrnambool expecting 22 degrees.

A broad trough of low pressure over western Victoria combines with a large high pressure system south-east of Tasmania, resulting in a humid easterly stream which will persist for much of this week as the high moves slowly east.

The trough is expected to weaken on Wednesday as a low pressure system over the Tasman Sea moves southwest towards the NSW south coast.

The low is expected to weaken on Thursday while another low and associated trough cross the Bight, to approach western Victoria during Friday.

For the rest of the week, depending on which weather service you view, Friday could be very wet.

Wednesday will be a partly cloudy 26 in Warrnambool, Thursday a sunny 26, Friday there's a 90 per cent chance of rain, up to 10mm, with a top of 24, Saturday's prediction is a 90 per cent chance of showers, again up to 10mm, with a top of 20 and Sunday the bureau is talking about scattered showers and a top of 19.

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