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BY-ELECTION results are one of the great mysteries of the Westminster system.
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Many electoral yardsticks are rendered useless and candidates face an almost absurd level of scrutiny.
Warrnambool solicitor Adam Kempton knows better than most about the intricacies of winning a by-election.
He was the successful Liberal candidate at the 1983 Warrnambool by-election, fending off National Party candidate John McGrath and ALP candidate Peter Cox.
“There is a greater focus on the candidates because there are less distractions at a state or national level,” Mr Kempton said.
“The premier and opposition leader tend to be more involved as well. (Then premier) John Cain and (opposition leader) Jeff Kennett both campaigned in the electorate, they certainly made their presence felt.”
Mr Kempton secured nearly 32 per cent of the primary vote to Mr McGrath’s 37 per cent but the former won convincingly with the two-party preferred vote.
“My primary vote increased substantially at the 1985 state election but Labor switched its preferences,” the former Liberal MP said. “So Labor’s preferences allowed me to be elected at the 1983 by-election but led to my defeat in 1985.”
Mr Kempton said interest from Spring Street will rise as the by-election date draws nearer.
“Matthew Guy will certainly have to campaign here and so too will Daniel Andrews if Labor decide to stand a candidate,” he said.