Watts the debate? Top two to deliver in spades

In an industry where only one of seventeen teams is deemed to have succeeded each year, brutal rankings of players are the norm. One player is better than the other. Team A should have picked Joe Bloggs before they picked Joe Schmo. We like to have a pecking order, as much to have a scapegoat if our team doesn't improve enough.

But is there a player taken below this pair who is potentially more valuable? The third pick in 2008, Stephen Hill outperformed Naitanui and Watts in his first two seasons, but he is struggling to find top form in 2011. He is a midfielder, and big men always take longer to develop – Watts and NicNat have arguably got greater scope for improvement. Pick four Hamish Hartlett has barely got on the field due to chronic hamstring woes, and has only just started showing his much-hyped qualities in the Port Adelaide engine room.

Pick five Bomber Michael Hurley, undoubtedly a long-term key position prospect, has shown great potential at either end of the ground, but is not a consistently dominant player yet. Other 2008 top ten selections include Chris Yarran (just hitting his straps as a rebounding defender for Carlton); Daniel Rich (Rising Star in his first year - now a solid, but not elite midfielder); Tyrone Vickery (a big man just starting to flourish for Richmond); Jack Ziebell (classy midfielder who has battled severe injuries); Phil Davis (centre-half-back cut down by injury when starting to cement a role for the Crows).

The progress of Watts and Naitanui is on a par with most of their peers. And both need to be ranked by what they could do in the future, rather than by past players. For they are both are unique and unorthodox big men, and may not play key positions in a traditional manner.

Watts, nursed through his first two seasons as a forward flanker, and for a brief period this season as a loose man in defence, has just started to show how potent a force he could be in the Melbourne forward line. His contested marks against Richmond in round 14 excited most applause, and as he grows stronger, Watts will become more of an aerial threat. However, Watts showed he was a 'gamer' with his last second snapped goal in the third term, when he beat three opponents to a loose ball to shore up the Demons against a Tiger surge. He has elite mobility and ground skills for a tall forward, effectively an extra 'forward midfielder' with his ability to find space, and he has the 'footy smarts' of a much more experienced footballer. Against Richmond on Saturday, with bulky ruckman Mark Jamar playing as a goalsquare target, Watts became general, directing forward line teammates to provide or constrain space. In round 12, he 'blew up' elite Magpie sweeper Ben Reid early in the match, with repeat efforts on the lead across half forward, ending up with 19 disposals despite his team's insipid performance. With a little more confidence, his innate leadership skills are evident, and his fire. Watts played only three games in his first season, and 15 in 2010. In 2011 he is averaging 16.5 possessions per game (up from 12.6 per in 2010), and he is kicking more than a goal a game this season after booting only ten last year.

Whilst not yet a focus of the forward line, he is becoming one of the most dangerous Demons for opponents. In the future, newer key forward prospects may well be compared to Watts – who can roam far and wide yet remain a scoring threat. He will not be a Travis Cloke, monstering opponents to rack up huge tallies of contested marks. But with a big engine, great game awareness, and magnificent ball skills, Watts could become a versatile weapon who is almost impossible to match up on – too big to be marked by a midfielder, too nimble for the bigger backmen.

Naitanui's true worth may not be understood until he has a prolonged stint as number one West Coast Eagles ruckman. The more contests Naitanui gets, the more valuable he will become, for his athleticism is so far superior to many of the mere mortals around him. Not a natural footballer, he has more to learn that most young prospects, but his scope for improvement is far greater. Possessing extreme pace and a huge leap, Naitanui already has has a showreel of spectacular feats, but playing as a second ruck, part-time midfielder and pinch-hitter up forward, Naitanui had sporadic influence on matches in his first two seasons. There were times he ran to the wrong places and barely won a possession. It shouldn't be forgotten however that he battled a shoulder injury for much of 2010 after starting in red hot form.

Naitanui tends to be judged by his most brilliant highlights – the huge marks and spectacular clearances – but they hide his steady improvement. At the end of his first season, after ten matches he averaged only nine disposals, a mark and 15 hit-outs per game. By the end of his injury-marred 2010, when he played all 22 of West Coast's matches, his averages were 11 possessions, 1.4 marks and 16 hit-outs. After 12 games in 2011, Naitanui is winning an average of 13 possessions, taking more than three marks a game, laying four tackles and whacking more than 19 hit-outs. Despite taking a mark of the year candidate against Carlton in round 14, his coaches would have been just as pleased by the fact that he laid nine tackles. The fact that John Worsfold effectively invented a new position for the 201cm Naitanui – as a second tall at clearances – shows just how nimble he is. If he learns how to win 'easy' possessions by using his athletic capacity to find space – he need only watch Eagles' No.1 ruck Dean Cox to see how – Naitanui will only become more valuable.

The debate about whether Watts or Naitanui is the more valuable player may well come down to how each critic rates a ruckman versus a forward, for both of these unique modern talents are likely to be at the top of their respective fields in years to come.