Only one in four voters believe the remaining Liberal government in Australia, which has been in minority for eight months, deserves to be re-elected.
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Polling of 850 Tasmanians by YouGov has indicated a hung parliament would be the outcome if a state election was held now.
The Liberals, who have been in minority since May, have lost big vote-getters including former premier Peter Gutwein and ex-attorney-general Elise Archer since their re-election in 2021.
According to YouGov, the Liberals would only receive 31 per of the vote, down from 48 per cent at the last poll.
When asked if the Liberal government deserved to be re-elected, 53 per cent of people said someone else deserved a go, 26 per cent said yes and 21 per cent didn't know.
The government has faced criticism over plans for a new stadium in Hobart and its response to a child abuse inquiry which found failings over decades.
Tasmania's lower house of parliament will increase from 25 to 35 members at the next election, which is due in the first few months of 2025.
The YouGov poll indicates the Liberals would win 11 seats, Labor 10, the Jacqui Lambie Network seven, Greens six, with one independent.
The Liberals hold 11 seats, Labor nine including one member who is outside the party room, the Greens two and there are three independents.
Jacqui Lambie recently announced her party would run candidates in some of Tasmania's five electorates.
But analyst Kevin Bonham poured cold water on YouGov's polling of a 20 per cent vote for Ms Lambie's party.
"It is quite common for what they call fourth parties to get polling bubbles in the lead-up to state elections," he said.
"I'd be surprised if they'd even get that sort of number if the election was held now.
"A lot of voters wouldn't realise Lambie herself isn't on the ballot.
"The most interesting question is the one asking if the government deserves to be re-elected and hardly anybody says yes."
Premier Jeremy Rockliff has indicated he has no desire for an early election.
Independent MP John Tucker, one of two Liberal defectors who hold the balance of power, recently put the government on notice by saying he would move a no-confidence motion when parliament resumes in March if animal welfare monitoring in abattoirs isn't improved.
The YouGov survey, conducted between December 21 and January 4, has a margin of error of 3.6 per cent.
Separate polling from EMRS, released in November, had Mr Rockliff holding 42 per cent support as preferred premier over Labor Opposition Leader Rebecca White (35 per cent).
The Liberals had 39 per cent of the backing, ahead of Labor (29 per cent), "other" (19 per cent) and the Greens (12 per cent).
Australian Associated Press
