Even in early February, 2023 looks somewhere between tricky and diabolical for Anthony Albanese - a deepening cost-of-living crisis; a risky Voice referendum push in which Albanese has little direct control yet is personally invested; and as of day one of the parliamentary year, a less navigable Senate, thanks to the sudden departure from the Greens of First Nations senator Lidia Thorpe.
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The Voice referendum is a slow burn and will play out over the year. Albanese continues to project confidence, but Thorpe's defection means there is now another parliamentary voice against the Voice, and this one is from the left.
In terms of other legislation, the contraction of the Greens' voting bloc is probably just an irritant to the government. It means even with David Pocock's support, it will have to wrangle an extra vote in addition to the Greens for some bills. This vote may come from Thorpe or the Jacqui Lambie Network. Each will want something for their trouble.
Such considerations though are hardly the grist of kitchen table anguish.
The cost of living crisis certainly is. It is a reality as unavoidable as it is endemic.
The Reserve Bank Board meets Tuesday for its first monthly meeting for 2023.
Heading into the summer break, there had been glimmers of optimism that the bank's tough medicine was achieving its aim of cooling demand.
December quarter inflation though, came in at 7.8 per cent. Now economists expect a series of further rate rises - perhaps four in coming months - which would add another $400 to monthly interest costs for the average homebuyer, on top of the extra $1300 or so already added on since last autumn.
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After fiddling around demanding spurious detail on the Voice referendum for much of the summer - a tactic transparently aimed at weaponising public doubt rather than resolving it - Peter Dutton is slowly waking up to the possibilities of hammering the government on high energy costs.
Labor had promised power bills would be $275 a year lower and plainly, will not deliver.
The Opposition's refrain, enunciated time and again at the first Question Time was "why do Australian families always have to pay more under Labor?"
Don't imagine it is the last time you'll hear this. For many voters, it will resonate.
Like the 800,000 home loans that the RBA says will come off fixed payments and move onto higher variable rates at some point this year. For these households, the jump in price will feel particularly savage. Who will they blame?
Albanese can protest that Dutton et al had themselves explained as recently as May 2022 (ie when they were in office) that rate rises were caused by global factors - supply chain problems, Ukraine War, and pandemic.
But the voters got rid of that government, didn't they?
Mark Kenny
Mark Kenny is The Canberra Times' political analyst and a professor at the ANU's Australian Studies Institute. He hosts the Democracy Sausage podcast. He writes a column every Sunday.
Mark Kenny is The Canberra Times' political analyst and a professor at the ANU's Australian Studies Institute. He hosts the Democracy Sausage podcast. He writes a column every Sunday.
