The South West Coast seat has a 40 per cent chance of flipping, a regional state politics expert says.
Deakin University politics lecturer Geoffrey Robinson said the 3.2 per cent margin held by Liberal incumbent Roma Britnell was under threat, arguing independent candidate Carol Altmann was her main rival.
"Given the Liberal primary vote last time was only about 35 per cent, the Liberal candidate is quite vulnerable, particularly if the independent could ... get ahead of Labor and get Labor preferences," he said.
"If Labor's vote falls to maybe about 15 or 17 per cent and Altmann manages to get ahead, it's an opportunity for her definitely."
Dr Robinson said he would expect the electorate to change hands if Ms Altmann won a primary vote percentage in the high 20s or low 30s.
He gave that a 40 per cent chance of happening.
He said he thought Labor had less of a chance of winning the seat due to Ms Altmann's decision to run a blank how-to-vote card - potentially giving Labor candidate Kylie Gaston less preference flow.
"The thing (Ms Britnell) has going in her favour is that (James) Purcell - the other independent who did quite well last time with 15 per cent - is running again and directing preferences to Labor," he said.
"That may help to push up Labor's vote and potentially keep them ahead of Altmann, in which case, you would predict a fairly comfortable victory for Britnell over Labor."
Dr Robinson said factors including the South West Coast being more of an "urban electorate" compared to its neighbours and its appetite for independent candidates - seen in Alex Dyson's popularity in the federal election - boosted Ms Altmann's chances.
"There's that sort of strong conservative vote inland that always swamps the Labor vote along the coast but (South West Coast) is more urban and not really a purely rural electorate," he said.
"Then there's the Dyson factor. If you look at his performance as a template for an independent, he did manage to get ahead of Labor particularly in the South West Coast region.
"But... there were particular things going on in the federal election that were dragging the Liberals down which are operating less so this time round."
Monash University politics lecturer Zareh Ghazarian said he expected Ms Britnell to hold on to South West Coast.
"What we're seeing, based on the opinion polls the last couple of days, is that there's a bit of a swing towards the opposition," he said.
"With a 3.2 per cent margin, it should be one of the seats the Liberals hold on to."
Dr Ghazarian said it was more likely Ms Britnell's primary vote would remain steady or increase slightly from the 32 per cent she won in 2018 given a predicted swing towards Liberals statewide.
"There's indication of an improvement in the primary vote of the Liberal Party," he said.
"We've seen that when Labor's lost support ... some has gone to the opposition.
"I think the Liberals will benefit from this, especially in the seats they hold."
He said it would be "extraordinary" for the Liberal Party to have a worse result than it did in the previous election but he thought there would not be a change of government.
"It'd expect the numbers to narrow. I would expect Labor to lose some seats and the Coalition to win some," he said.
"But what we've seen in the polls hasn't really indicated that the swing is so strong that it's going to cause a change of government."
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