South West Coast's sitting member has gained a slight margin in the coming state election but the Liberal Party is set to suffer a net loss statewide, according to electoral commission analysis.
The Victorian Electoral Commission estimates Liberal Party MP Roma Britnell's margin has jumped from 4.6 per cent to 6.4 per cent under a boundary redistribution, pushing her predicted vote to 53.2 per cent on a two-candidate-preferred basis.
Electorate boundaries are often redrawn after two elections have been held, when there are a disproportionate number of enrolments in electorates, or if there is a change to district or region amounts.
South West Coast is tipped to be the 12th-closest seat for the Liberal Party, just after neighbouring electorate Polwarth and regional north-east Victorian seat Benambra.
Ms Britnell said she was not becoming complacent with the predicted gain.
"I am under no illusion that South West Coast is a marginal seat and I won't be taking anything for granted," she said.
"My focus remains on working hard on a range of issues including healthcare, housing, cost-of-living and roads."
Ms Britnell said she was pleased to welcome new towns to the electorate including Garvoc, Laang, Noorat, Peterborough and Terang.
"I have already spoken to many people from those areas," she said.
"Many of the issues are similar to those raised in other parts of the electorate with the appalling condition of roads of particular concern."
She said other major issues she would be campaigning on included healthcare, upgrades to Warrnambool's Surf Life Saving Club and breakwater, and The Lookout alcohol and drug rehabilitation centre.
"The Liberals have committed $36 million to establish The Lookout," she said.
"This is a much-needed facility for our entire region.
"Our commitments to upgrades at Warrnambool Surf Life Saving Club and the Warrnambool breakwater will also help revitalise the Warrnambool foreshore."
Labor Party candidate Kylie Gaston said the estimated marginal swing to Ms Britnell was "definitely another factor" to consider, but stressed the election was "won or lost at a state level".
"If that helps Roma out by percentage, fair enough, that's the way democracy works," she said.
"I'll certainly be doing my hardest to make that percentage point less effective.
"Overall, the boundary predictions are saying the Liberals are probably going to have a net disadvantage."
Using results from the 2018 state election to analyse the electoral re-divisions, the VEC forecast a net loss of one seat for the Victorian Liberal-National coalition in 2022.
But Ms Gaston said she was hoping a win in the south-west would add to Liberal's losses.
"I don't want our region to spend another four years in effective opposition," she said.
"It'd be great to have someone with a closer seat at the table of government.
"This population needs and deserves to be heard better than it has been."
She said the added suburbs to the South West Coast from the redistribution were a "great opportunity" for her party to grow their support in the district.
"I'm certainly intending to get in my walking shoes and do some door-knocking," she said.
"It'd be great to get out there and meet people, and understand their concerns."
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