The economy, stupid. With those three words, political adviser James Carville honed a campaign strategy that would sweep Bill Clinton to the presidency in 1992. A quarter of a century on, and Donald Trump used a simple economic message to win the White House, this time at the expense of Hillary Clinton.
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Mr Trump swept the traditional Democrat states that had voted twice for Barack Obama, promising to stop jobs heading overseas, to close borders, to trash the free trade deals signed by his predecessors. He didn't even need to explain how. He mobilised an underclass that felt forgotten by what it sees as the country's ruling elite. He won on the back of the rust belt, once great manufacturing states that have seen high unemployment and stagnant wage growth amid the decline of American industry.
Mrs Clinton responded by saying, "You could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic – you name it."
In doing so, she alienated a vast swath of middle America. She played the man and not the ball. The same failures have been evident within Australian politics, where opponents of One Nation have ridiculed Pauline Hanson and her voters, rather than try to debunk the failed logic that underpins One Nation's beliefs and policies.
It doesn't take long to find parallels with Victoria's changing economy. Within the term of the Andrews government, Victoria will witness the end of the Australian car industry. Gone, too, is the Hazelwood power station in the Latrobe Valley, while the future of Alcoa's aluminium smelter in Portland and SPC Ardmona's cannery in Shepparton hang in the balance. Tens of thousands of jobs are expected to be affected.
Such seeds of discontent have given rise to populist movements. It would be naive to think the sentiment that swept Mr Trump to power and led Britain to Brexit does not exist in Australia. The narrative here is that foreigners are buying our homes, our factories and our farms.
We have already seen the rebirth of One Nation, which is trying to assert more power and influence at a national level, and growing unhappiness with Malcolm Turnbull within the right of the Liberal Party. What Australia doesn't yet have is a Trump.
Unless our leaders can reconnect with the nation's disenchanted, the evidence from around the world is that may only be a matter of time.
