Terang-born social commentator and executive director of The Demographics Group, Bernard Salt, said a seismic shift in Australia's ageing population was about to create unprecedented pressure on the aged care system.

"If you look at Census data for people aged 80 years and over, growth in that group is going to peak in 2027, just four years from now," Mr Salt said.

Until 1980 the net number of people aged 80-plus grew by less than 10,000 per year. By the 2000s it was increasing by roughly 25,000 people each year, and in 2022 it is due to grow by more than 35,000 people.

But in 2025 it will surge past 50,000 people, and in 2027 it will peak at around 80,000, more than doubling its current growth in just four years. After that the growth figures level off to around 50,000 per year until the early 2040s. It is a huge shift that is baked into the demographics.

Mr Salt said for Warrnambool and the south-west, which are already seen as retirement hot spots, it was a wave that needed to be managed immediately. "I think what this means is that Warrnambool needs to evolve as a care city."

He said Warrnambool had the additional burden of being the key city in the region.

"Warrnambool is sufficiently removed from Geelong, from Melbourne, that it's got to be all things to everyone. You can't get to it easily, so it's got to service all the needs, all the lifestyle, all the medical, all the training, all the work needs, for not just Warrnambool, but probably of a region of another 50,000 people," he said.

"They're not bleeding off to Melbourne or Ballarat or Mount Gambier, their central place is Warrnambool. It's a de facto capital city."

Mr Salt said Warrnambool had already made the evolution into a "lifestyle and agriculture services centre", so it had the pieces in place to take the next step.

"But cities of this size, 35000-40,000 people and surrounding districts, need to have not just a base hospital, but also a superior level of aged care services. And that's not just residential, but also in home care, and it means training as well," he said. "You could argue that Warrnambool needs to be a centre of excellence not just for TAFE, not just for Deakin, but it needs to be a centre for excellence for training in all those skills required now and in the future."

Mr Salt said the latest Census showed occupation figures for aged care and disability workers were off the charts, outstripping all other professions, with 95,000 extra people in the workforce between 2016 and 2021.

"It's a ridiculous figure. The top occupation is generally around the 60,000 mark or so, so 95,000 is enormous," he said.

But that workforce will have to grow even further.

Between them, South West TAFE and Deakin University offer nursing and support worker qualifications that could produce the next wave of aged and disability care workers. The next question would be housing.

"This is an issue right around the Australian coast. The lifestylers, the retirees are flooding into these lifestyle and telecommuter communities, and it's soaking up available accommodation," Mr Salt said.

South West Healthcare CEO Craig Fraser spoke last week describing the challenges a local lack of housing posed for recruiting healthcare workers. "When you attract specialist staff, whether they be doctors, nurses, allied health or other staff and then they can't find a house, we actually lose good recruits," he told The Standard on Friday.

Mr Salt said every area needed to create tailored solutions to the crisis, but worker accommodation was key. "You really need worker-type accommodation, a simpler form of housing that provides everything you need, but is more affordable," he said.

Mr Salt spoke at an event hosted by Moyne Shire Council on Monday November 14 and will speak at the invitation of Warrnambool City Council on Tuesday November 15.