An unlikely loss in Wannon for the Liberals will be a "disaster" for the party regardless of the national result, says a political expert.
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Given incumbent Dan Tehan's 10.2 per cent margin, Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said if there was a big swing against the Coalition, or if it lost the seat, it would be "real danger time for the party".
"It is a seat we would expect the Coalition to keep," he said.
"If there is a changing of hands, then it's an absolute disaster for them.
"Liberal would have to have a deep think about where it went wrong."
However, Dr Ghazarian said there may be a change in the margin held by the Liberal Party in Wannon.
"The general trend for the last few weeks, as we can see in the opinion polls, is that the swing is towards Labor," he said.
"If that's to be true, then we'd expect the Coalition's vote to fall, but not to the extent that it can lose the seat."
Dr Ghazarian said he thought independent Alex Dyson's vote would float around 10 to 15 per cent this election.
"Generally what we find is that voters tend to vote for the major parties," he said.
"The teal independents overall are on track to potentially cause an upset in the inner-metropolitan seats.
"But in terms of how they have been travelling in outer-metropolitan areas, such as Wannon, I think they've captured the attention less."
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He said he suspected the Greens' first preference vote would remain steady despite speculation it might lose votes to independents in some seats.
"The Greens have been hovering around that 10 per cent mark... I'm expecting it to hold around there," he said.
"What we're seeing is that some voters are going towards the teal independents, and there's been a shift in terms of Labor votes going up.
"The impact that the teals have on the Greens - I wouldn't expect to be devastating."
Dr Ghazarian suggested a quieter campaign than previous elections from Labor in Wannon was possibly a "tactical decision".
"If the party isn't campaigning strongly, then we would guess they've made a strategic choice to campaign sparingly and focus their resources on electorates where they think they have a stronger chance of winning," he said.
According to Dr Ghazarian, there may be possible backing of Dan Tehan for Liberal leadership if he retains his seat amid a Coalition government loss on Saturday.
"He certainly been a very prominent Liberal MP and very prominent Victorian, and may potentially be seen to be a future leader," he said.
"If the Coalition does lose, then presumably they're going to start looking at a replacement leader, and Dan Tehan's name may just be one of those in the mix."
Mr Tehan confirmed he would see out his term if he won in Wannon but the Coalition lost government.
"If the electorate of Wannon re-elects me at this election, I am committed to serving out my full term as the Liberal Member for Wannon," he said.
"I have a lot more that I want to achieve before I would consider leaving politics."
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