The major changes to COVID-19 restrictions are not expected take place until the end of October.
Premier Daniel Andrews released his road map on Sunday, saying the results would be disastrous if the state opens up too quickly.
"The last 20 months have been all about buying time to get everyone vaccinated," Mr Andrews said.
"If we open up everything now with just 45 per cent we would have many many thousands of people in intensive care."
Mr Andrews warned there were tough times to come, with Burnet modelling revealing some "sobering" predictions.
He said the modelling suggested case numbers would peak at 4500 in December, hospital admissions would reach more than 3000 in January and deaths would reach about 2200 at the same time.
There will be only minor changes for regional Victoria under the first phase of the roadmap, when 80 per cent of people over 16 have had at least one vaccine dose.
The state government said it would have more details by the end of September about a return to face-to-face learning for regional students who were not already back in the classroom.
When the state reaches Phase B of the roadmap - 70 per cent fully vaccinated, which is expected on about October 26 - new vaccination status rules will kick in. Anyone wanting to access services like hospitality, beauty, or organised physical recreation will have to be fully vaccinated.
At this point hospitality caps will increase to 30 people indoors and 100 people outside. Outdoor social gatherings will double to 20 and gym capacity will triple to 30 people.
When 80 per cent of Victorians are fully vaccinated, people will be allowed to welcome 10 people to their homes and up to 150 vaccinated people will be allowed to dine indoors. At this point masks will only be required indoors.
Mr Andrews said it was hoped Victorians would be allowed to welcome 30 people to their home for Christmas lunch or dinner.
At this point 150 vaccinated people will be allowed to attend an indoor wedding, while 500 will be allowed to attend an outdoor wedding.
Mr Andrews again urged people to book to get vaccinated.
He said there was some uncertainty about how much Pfizer would be made available to Australians in October.
"I don't know how much Pfizer is coming next month but I know we have more than enough Astrazeneca," Mr Andrews said
He also announced a seven-day lockdown for the City of Greater Geelong, Surf Coast and Mitchell Shire.
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