UPDATE, 1.30pm:
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In the 28 hours since 9am yesterday Warrnambool has had 15mm of rain and wind gusts of 89km/h at about noon Tuesday.
Port Fairy had 9.0mm of rain, Cape Nelson 26.4, Dartmoor 11.6, Hamilton 8.6, Casterton 16.4, Mortlake 7.8, Mount Gellibrand 6.4, Aireys Inlet 14.8 and Cape Otway 20.
Mount William had 23mm of rain, with a wind gusts of 100km/h at 12.22pm and at 1pm it was -0.4 degrees at the top of the mountain and felt like -15.6.
Earlier: There's a severe weather warning for a strong and gusty cold change impacting parts of the south-west.
Overnight Warrnambool had seven millimetres of rain until 7.30am, when it was 7.7 degrees in the city and felt like 2.9.
A strong cold front is forecast to cross Victoria today.
Damaging south-westerly winds, averaging 55 to 65 km/h with peak gusts around 90 km/h, are possible in the warning area with and following the passage of the cold front.
Damaging winds are expected to develop about the western parts of the warning area and the Alpine region mid to late this morning, then extend to central parts of the warning area, including Melbourne, during the afternoon.
Winds will ease from the west during Tuesday evening.
Locations which may be affected include Warrnambool, Portland, the Grampians, Kyneton, the Surf Coast, Melbourne, Wonthaggi, Mount Baw Baw and Falls Creek.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
- If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
- Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
- Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
- Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
- Stay indoors and away from windows.
- If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
- Stay away from fallen power lines - always assume they are live.
- Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
- Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
There's also a marine gale warning for the west coast.
Sheep farmers are also warned that showers, local hail and thunder and cold and gusty south-westerly winds are expected to develop during Tuesday before contracting to southern districts on Wednesday and easing.
There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
There's also a very high (95 per cent) chance of showers, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening.
The snow level is lowering to 600 metres.
There's the chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon and possible hail.
Winds will be north-westerly 25 to 35 km/h turning south-westerly 30 to 35 km/h during the morning then increasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the middle of the day.
Daytime maximum temperatures for the south-west will be around 11 degrees.
Warrnambool is expecting 12, Hamilton and Ararat 10, Portland and Port Fairy 13.
In the days ahead - tomorrow we can expect more showers and a top of 13 degrees, Thursday a possible shower 12, Friday a shower or two 11, Saturday showers 13 and Sunday windy with showers 11.
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