Today across the south-west will be windy - very windy.
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It will be a mostly sunny morning with a very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely late this afternoon and evening.
Winds will be northerly 25 to 35 km/h tending north-westerly in the late afternoon.
At 7am in Warrnambool it was 13.5 degrees, felt like 5.2 and we've had 0.2mm of rain since 9am yesterday.
North wind gusts are already up to 54km/h.
A severe weather warning has been issued for damaging northerly winds, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are possible over south-west Victoria, the central ranges, and the northeast ranges from early Monday afternoon.
Damaging winds will become more likely during the evening ahead of the front, and will extend to parts of Central Victoria.
Winds are expected to ease in the west later on Monday evening, about central areas early on Tuesday morning and then over the northeastern ranges by 10am Tuesday, as the cold front crosses the state.
Locations which may be affected include Hamilton, Warrnambool, Portland, Kyneton, Ballarat and Wonthaggi.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
- If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
- Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
- Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
- Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
- Stay indoors and away from windows.
- If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
- Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
- Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
- Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
A ridge of high pressure over eastern New South Wales will weaken today as a strong cold front approaches western Victoria this evening, reaching the far west of the state late in the day then slowly crossing central and eastern parts during Tuesday.
A low pressure system is likely to form along the front over eastern Bass Strait later on Tuesday, then intensify near the New South Wales coast on Wednesday, where it will remain fairly stationary through Thursday.
Today Warrnambool is expecting a top of 19 degrees, Hamilton 18, Colac 17, Ararat 17, Casterton 19, Mortlake 18, Heywood 19, Portland 19, Port Fairy 19, Terang 18 and Camperdown 17.
For the week ahead - Tuesday we are expecting thunderstorms and a top of just 11 degrees, Wednesday showers 12, Thursday cloudy 14, Friday partly cloudy 14, Saturday partly cloudy 14, Sunday mostly cloudy 14 and Monday partly cloudy 15.
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