The projection forms part of a new report that paints a promising future for south-west Victoria.

Written by leading demographer Bernard Salt, his 'Demographic Destiny' report looks at demographic and business count information for rural Victoria, and what this means for communities.

It was commissioned by Rural Councils Victoria, the peak body representing Victoria's 38 rural councils.

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"When you benchmark the south-west against other parts of Victoria a few things stand out," Mr Salt said.

"Official projections showed Moyne is expected to have 20,000 people by 2036 and I put that down to the baby boomer farmers that are set to come off land from places like Hamilton.

"A lot will not be wanting to go east of Cape Otway but retire to a sea change community - Moyne will be that destination over the next 20 years or so.

"That's a little higher than the rate of growth that Moyne has experienced over the last 20 years."

Moyne Shire's population is tipped to increase by 12 per cent by 2036.

In 2000 there were 15,487 people living in Moyne Shire; in 2020 that grew to 17,027 people and in 2036 there will be 19,026.

From 2000 to 2020 there was a 10 per cent population increase.

Moyne Shire eonomic development and planning director Brett Davis said Mr Salt's projects line up with the council's 2040 vision.

"With a predicted growth in population of around 2000 people in Moyne over the next 15 years, it is about achieving a balance that retains our highly valuable agricultural land and directing growth to our existing townships," he said.

"Moyne Shire has so much to offer those people looking to relocate out to the regions. Our major towns; Port Fairy, once voted the world's most liveable town, Koroit which is seeing increased growth both in business and residential options, and Mortlake, an agricultural and renewable energy hub.

"We also have many smaller towns with welcoming communities, great resources for young people and families, all surrounded by terrific farming areas for those looking to move onto the land.

"Council is focusing on attracting people to our shire, knowing that employment and lifestyle opportunities are key, while also ensuring we have available house and land supply options."

In the Corangamite Shire the population is projected to decrease by seven per cent.

In 2000 there were 17,366 people living in Corangamite Shire, which dropped to 15,929 in 2020.

By 2036 it's projected that will drop further again to 14,892.

However this should not be cause for alarm, Mr Salt said.

"Corangamite has always hovered on low growth but it's always been a steady municipality," he said.

"The loss being projected is so marginal it's more or less nonexistent. I don't think it will result in fewer schools, hospital services or police force numbers.

"It's just a technical loss."

He said the soldier settlement programs in the post-war period pumped up population figures in Corangamite and Moyne.

A generation later the farms began to amalgamate, boosting productivity in the regions.

"Farming and agri-business in the broader region has been honed by this process over a generation," Mr Salt said.

"Dairy farms and grazing stations really are on the whole, very finely tuned in terms of being efficient agricultural businesses.

"When you look at business counts - which is is a data source that measures ABNs - they show quite an unusual surge in many businesses popping up in Corangamite.

"The conclusion I drew from that is with a community where there's been long term rationalisation of the population - for example one farmer buying out the neighbour's farm and becoming a lot more efficient - it has a reducing effect on the population but a positive effect on productivity and the business edge of agri-business.

"It might be fencing or a cattle gate welding businesses for example, that produce product for farms in the local area that can't be standardised and brought in from China.

"It's therefore generating this demand for locally manufactured product on the edge of Warrnambool.

"From a council point of view, they need to be supporting local skills through TAFE and colleges that hone welding and manufacturing skills. I think that would be a good idea.

"Running courses on business management would also be good for those kinds of areas.

"It's very positive."

Corangamite Shire chief executive officer Andrew Mason is also on the RCV board and was excited by the projections for his municipality.

"As with lots of rural areas population decline is a major concern," Mr Mason said.

"I think what's really exciting about this report is that Bernard Salt suggests that after COVID there are tremendous opportunities for that to be turned around.

"He really talks about post-COVID being rural Victoria's time to shine.

"It's a really positive and exciting report because of that."

The effects of the pandemic and migration away from city centres is already being seen in the shire.

"I think we're seeing it happen already with housing prices rising and we're all of a sudden confronted with the issue land availability which hasn't been an issue here before," he said.

"The group seeking an alternate lifestyle will bring wealth and jobs with them, now being able to do a lot of work remotely.

"We certainly know we need to work hard to address the issues that have emerged which is land availability and making sure we start seeing new housing developed, and making sure both the state and federal government ensure that telecommunications, both mobile and broadband, are at really good speeds and coverage to ensure people can work and learn from home.

"What we're seeing is some of the housing sales going to local people but a big proportion have gone to people on the west side of Melbourne and Surf Coast area who are moving to our area and that's great."

He said business in the shire was growing in both small and large-scale levels.

"The strength in agriculture is creating spinoff industries in manufacturing and that's creating jobs and wealth," he said.

"What we are also seeing is food and beverage manufacturing both at a global scale with businesses like Fonterra and at a more boutique smaller scale like Timboon Ice-cream, growing."

Before the pandemic hit, Corangamite Shire was buckling under overwhelming international tourist numbers and with that, a spiraling crisis of road accidents along the Great Ocean Road.

Mr Mason said now was the time to get the shire's infrastructure upgraded to ensure the balance between tourists and locals can be better met.

"The report identifies that people will move to rural areas because of the lifestyle. It's therefore really important that while we've got a downturn in international tourists that we are using this opportunity to build infrastructure that contributes to that lifestyle like the Twelve Apostles Trail and Port Campbell town centre projects.

"We know streetscapes and trails, as well as supporting food and beverage businesses, all contribute to liveability and is something that will attract people to move to the area."

The report shows Glenelg Shire's population is projected to decrease by four per cent in the next ten years, Southern Grampians to decrease by seven per cent, and Colac to grow by three per cent.

"The broader point I make is that the drought has broken and Melbourne is discovering the regions," Mr Salt said.

"We have broken the nexus between the workplace and home with working from home.

"When you put all that together I say that it is rural Victoria's time in the sun.

"At the end of the day what drives Australians is access to lifestyle, quality housing, education and services.

"There are some people you will never get out of Melbourne but there are people who are swayable, with the skills and the right attitude to make that shift."

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