UPDATE, 1pm:
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The Bureau of Meteorology has now released a severe weather warning for Saturday relating to damaging winds for south-west Victoria and much of the state.
A cold front will cross Victoria on Saturday, with strong northerly winds ahead of the front, and gusty westerly winds behind the change.
Damaging north to north-westerly winds, averaging 50 to 70km/h with peak gusts of 100 to 110km/h, are expected to develop about elevated terrain (above 500m) of western and Central Victoria on Saturday morning, and extend to elevated parts of eastern Victoria (above 800m) during the day.
Winds are likely to ease below warning thresholds in western/central parts on Saturday evening, but will continue in the Eastern Ranges during Sunday.
Damaging northerly winds, averaging 40 to 60km/h with peak gusts to 100km/h, are expected to develop at lower elevation about southern and western districts during Saturday, followed by damaging westerly winds, averaging 40 to 60km/h with peak gusts of 90km/h as, a squally wind change crosses the state during the afternoon and evening.
Stronger gusts to 100km/h are likely to be associated with showers or thunderstorms.
Gusts of up to 100km/h are also possible in exposed coastal locations during the afternoon and evening.
Damaging westerly winds are expected to ease inland during Saturday evening, however are likely to persist in exposed coastal locations during Sunday morning.
Locations which may be affected include Warrnambool, Horsham, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne and Traralgon.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
- Be aware that trees that have been damaged by heat or fire may be unstable and more likely to fall when it is windy or wet.
- Check that loose items such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured and move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
- Stay indoors and away from windows.
- If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
- If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
- Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
- Stay away from fallen powerlines always assume they are live.
- Stay informed monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency.
Earlier: Rain is almost guaranteed on Saturday with the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm putting local sport in doubt.
The Bureau of Meteorology and SES Victoria are holding a joint media conference today to warn of the potentially severe weather.
The forecast is for a cloudy Saturday with a very high (95 per cent) chance of showers, mostly in the afternoon and early evening.
There's also the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, with possibly severe weather across the state with damaging winds.
Winds are predicted to be north to north-easterly 35 to 50 km/h shifting westerly in the early afternoon.
Overnight temperatures will fall to between 12 and 15 degrees with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s.
A deep low moving eastwards over the Southern Ocean will extend a trough over western Victoria Saturday morning, followed by a cold front which will cross the state in the afternoon and evening.
The low will pass to the south of Tasmania late on Sunday, with another front to cross Victoria during Monday, bringing a colder southwesterly stream later.
For the week ahead in Warrnambool, Saturday we're expecting a top of 22 degrees and rain, Sunday showers 16, Monday showers 15, Tuesday partly cloudy 16, Wednesday partly cloudy 18, Thursday partly cloudy 19 and Friday partly cloudy 21.
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