A recession, a jump in unemployment, civilian lockdowns and reduced work hours would normally be a recipe for disaster for Warrnambool's car dealers.
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But they are driving through the coronavirus pandemic in good shape, albeit with a rare problem - difficulties in getting enough stock.
The availability of new cars is fast becoming a major issue for Warrnambool dealers due to strong demand and short supply.
Norton Motor Group dealer principal Marcus Norton said overall this year he expected to finish up between five and 10 per cent for 2020 compared with 2019.
"If someone had told me that earlier in the year I would have said 'you have rocks in your head, that's just not going to happen, no way'," he said.
"I just couldn't have seen it panning out that way.
"I know a lot of dealers in Melbourne and they are just opening up. They have really been bled dry."
Mr Norton said strong support from the farming community and builders had made an enormous difference.
"The government has done a good job stimulating the economy through the instant asset write off," he said.
"Farmers are having a really good season and builders are generally booked up for 12 months. We've had really strong support from those sectors.
"We have been really lucky to be based in a regional area. We've had it pretty good."
Mr Norton said the big issue now was supply.
"We just can't get cars with some sold out until February and March next year," he said, explaining that manufacturing plants in Thailand and elsewhere had been closed at times during the coronavirus pandemic.
The dealer principal said January and February were lighter months, in March when the pandemic hit, sales virtually stopped, but the market showed positive signs in April and May and by June and July sales were rebounding.
"Our market was down worse than 20 per cent but it's not only bounced back but is now above last year," Mr Norton said.
"My numbers will be stronger by the end of the year, even after the crash.
"All the car dealers got together for a picture supporting Let's Talk this week and we're all in the same boat, light on for stock and especially new cars.
"We've nearly run out of cars, it's really tricky.
"Looking back to the first lockdown, when coronavirus hit business just stopped.
"By the second lockdown we all had our heads around it and we all managed a lot better.
"To end up where we are going to is a terrific result."
Callaghan Motors principal Steve Callaghan agreed the supply of new cars was a problem.
"It's certainly our biggest issue," he said.
"The total market in the south-west this year is down nine per cent but my gut feeling is that it will bounce back.
"It slowed down again in August and September and we're close to getting the October figures.
"Now that things are opening up I think it will take off. A lot of people are not travelling overseas after they booked trips.
"They are either doing house renovations, upgrading a kitchen, or buying cars or caravans because they can't go overseas."
Mr Callaghan said those in jobs with secure employment were generally travelling OK while farmers and builders were busy.
"Farmers are having a good season. For builders new homes and renovations are busy and real estate looks like being strong for the next couple of years," he said.
"We are not through this pandemic yet and the poor people in hospitality and the tourism industry have copped it.
"They are still working through restrictions.
"But I think the back of this year looks pretty positive. Our issue is supplying stock.
"Factories were closed overseas and they haven't caught up. It might be next year before stock supplies are up-to-date."
The dealer principal said ordering a specific caravan may take until mid next year to arrive.
"It could be June next year, that's crazy," Mr Callaghan said.
"We've fought really hard for stock and stock is coming through but they can only build so many. We do have a good supply coming through."
Mr Callaghan said his caravan business arm attracted customers from across the region.
"It helps keep dollars and employment in town and brings people in. It's a bigger window for people to come in to buy," he said.
Clinton Baulch Motor Group dealer principal Clinton Baulch said new Isuzu and Kia models were proving popular with orders backed up until May next year.
"In March and April I thought my business was finished and now we are certainly having much better times," he said.
"That is not happening nationwide but the Western District economy is very resilient.
"We may be seen as conservative here but we do support our own when the chips are down.
"There's a real feeling in the community that we all need to support local businesses, especially hospitality now.
"The flow on from agriculture and building is terrific. As someone who has a farm, we've had a super season, rain when we wanted it, sun and a bit of warmth."
Warrnambool Auto Group general manager Greg Kelson said government initiatives had helped enormously.
He said actual sales of cars would be down but the south-west was in a "very fortunate" position compared with metropolitan Melbourne.
"We saw a rush in June through the instant asset write-off and we'll probably see more of that at the back end of this financial year," he said.
Warrnambool Toyota dealer principal Matthew Burgess said March and April were hectic as businesses tried to weave their way through staffing and other issues. "We did think we were going to be in a lot of strife," he said.
"We came out of that pretty quickly and have progressed quite well.
"It's been a pretty good last few months especially backed by the agriculture and building industries.
"Looking at the numbers there's not many regions that have fared as well as this area.
"I still have concerns about hospitality and tourism, but if we can keep supporting them as much as possible I'm pretty optimistic.
"Everyone was very fearful in March and April but we were able to keep everyone employed through Jobkeeper.
"Our economy does look strong.
"Farmers are having a bumper season and they don't have that money to spend yet. I would have thought this area is as healthy as anywhere."
All new cars sold in Warrnambool will have a Let's Talk Foundation sticker attached to their sun visors to remind people to be aware of their mental health.
Let's Talk Foundation coordinator Jacinta Roache has been delighted to get the support of all Warrnambool car dealers.
"They are a wonderful group of business people, well known in our community and we have their support across the dealerships," she said.
"They have come together despite being competitors for a very important cause that impacts everyone."
"We need all business, clubs and the whole community to recognise mental health issues if we are to change the stigma and be there for the people we love," she said.
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