Update, 4pm: South West Healthcare chief executive Craig Fraser has praised the state government's roadmap out of COVID-19 restrictions, saying they bring hope for regional Victoria.
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The new roadmap has been a source of contention, but the hospital top boss said people needed to stay the course so the region could come out of lockdown and avoid a third wave.
"I welcome the Premier's prudent roadmap, particularly the fact that it provides hope to rural and regional Victoria that if we can continue to limit new cases we will see direct benefits," he said.
"I look forward to hearing about its health-specific implications in the days to come. The Premier highlighted, during his announcements yesterday, that this level of detail, including information on elective surgery, will be released soon.
"In the meantime, we all need to keep doing everything we have been doing.
We're in a great position due to our commitment to not let down our guard and become complacent.
- Craig Fraser, South West Healthcare chief executive officer
"Please remember we are here due to our behaviours related to wearing masks, physical distancing, and practicing good hand and respiratory hygiene. In doing this, we protect the south-west and each other from this deadly disease, and keeping it up will spare all of us from any potential of a third lockdown."
'Patient zero' of Colac's second wave first infected at Melbourne hospital
Update, 3.45pm: Colac's second wave of coronavirus infections resulting in 25 active cases has been linked back to a resident who travelled to a Melbourne hospital, local health authorities say.
Barwon Health head of infectious disease Professor Eugene Athan said the index case in this outbreak had been linked to the resident travelling to Melbourne for urgent medical care.
There are currently 25 active cases of COVID-19 in Colac, each linked to the community's second outbreak.
16 active cases are currently linked to Bulla Dairy Foods in Colac.
Total ever cases in Colac has increased to 122.
"The current cases are across a small number of businesses and household contacts," Professor Athan said.
"The Colac community has responded very well to complying with the public health measures and when requested confirmed cases and close contacts have been self-isolating at home or in accommodation. A small number of cases may be linked to a social gathering.
"Colac Area Health has expanded testing capacity and anyone with even the mildest of symptoms is encouraged to get tested.
"There will be extensive testing this week as close contacts are due for day 11 testing and this may identify further cases however all of these close contacts have been self-isolating."
Latest DHHS data shows a drop in cases in Warrnambool, down to just one active case.
There remains one active case in Corangamite Shire, and zero in Moyne Shire, Glenelg Shire and Southern Grampians Shire.
There's one active case in Surf Coast Shire, 16 in Geelong, four in Bendigo, three in Ballarat and Horsham, and none in Golden Plains Shire.
CHO expects regional Victorian case average to drop below five in next fortnight
Earlier, 12pm: Victoria has recorded 41 new cases of coronavirus and nine deaths overnight.
It's the first time the state has recorded less than 50 dates since June.
Eight of the nine deaths are linked to aged care and include one woman in her 70s, one woman and three men in their 80s, and one woman and three men in their 90s.
There are 266 Victorians in hospital, with 25 in intensive care and 17 on ventilators
Another 12,938 tests were processed since yesterday, mainly comprising of Saturday test results.
There are 4369 cases with an unknown source, an increase of four.
Of the state's 1781 cases, 259 are healthcare workers, 95 are in regional Victoria, and 873 are in aged care.
There are no new cases in Geelong at 16 active cases.
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said he expected the daily case average in Victoria to drop below five in the next two weeks.
"With 41 new cases we're under 50 for the first time since June, we're at the lowest we've been for some months," he said.
"I know people are watching the 14 day average closely now, regional Victoria's average cases have been just above five and we expect in two weeks that number will drop below five and without outbreaks occurring can open up further.
"For metropolitan Melbourne the 14 day average is close to 100, but that was close to 400 only a month ago.
"We can expect to be below 50 in two weeks."
Professor Sutton highlighted there were still 1781 active cases in the state and for people to be vigilant.
"When we're thinking about not opening up as quickly it's because those cases are a risk, they all have close contacts and we need to bear that in mind when we take the next steps.
"We are seeing meatworks as a case in point, there is a particular risk in chill rooms like abattoirs in terms of the virus sustaining itself for a long period of time and travelling further between people."
Professor Sutton said the goal wasn't necessarily to have zero instances of community transmission.
"We are just trying to have a pathway to make sure we're not stepping backwards in weeks or months to come," he said.
"If there's a controlled small number of cases we can keep suppressed then that's an equally decent place to be in, it does carry some risks because as long as there's community transmission there's more risk of surging, so getting rid of it is preferable, but we won't let that hold us back as an aim."
Premier Daniel Andrews said the single person bubble meant single people could have another individual to their home.
"A person for whom this bubble is most important are able to have someone form another household like an intimate partner, the five kilometre limit does not apply but the curfew does," he said.
"When you're together that's essentially your home, so you have to abide by the rules there.
"It's an important step when you consider the heavy burden people who genuinely haven't had anyone have had to bear."
From September 28, assuming cases are between 30-50, Premier Andrews said home childcare would be permitted in line with on-site childcare with no need for a permit.
He said outdoor skateparks wouldn't be opening in metropolitan Melbourne until the third step had been reached.
"I want to thank Victorians for the amazing job they're doing, I want to say how proud I am despite the restrictions and frustration and weariness with these rules," Premier Andrews said.
"We are sticking together and looking out for each other and having considerable success.
"On August 5 we had 721 cases, and now we have 41 cases.
"We will drive these numbers down, when we open we can stay open and have a sense of normality that will be lasting and sustainable throughout 2021 until we get a vaccine.
"Without the work everyone is doing we can't drive the numbers down. I still ask please get tested if you have any symptoms.
To go from 721 cases to 41 cases in a month demonstrates the strategy is working, the sacrifices are worth something and I want that to count.
- Premier Daniel Andrews
"I would like to open more quickly than we can but none of us has luxury of letting frustration get the better of us, that's the recipe for a third wave and being open for short period then closed down again/
"That's not what the data or doctors recommend, we need a steady safe opening, and that is what we will do and it will be lasting."
Victorian COVID-19 roadmap: what are the COVID steps and how do we advance?
Have you been left a little confused about the different 'steps' involved in the roadmap out of COVID-19 restrictions?
Have the new rules made the path even more complicated than it initially was?
The Standard will try and break down the current situation in regional Victoria and provide some direction as to what awaits.
What is the situation now?
For the rest of this week (up until 11.59pm on Sunday, September 13) nothing changes.
As per the last five weeks, we remain under stage three restrictions.
This means there are only four reasons for you to leave home:
- to shop for food and necessary goods or services
- to provide care, for compassionate reasons or to seek medical treatment
- to exercise or for outdoor recreation
- for work or education, if you can't do it from home
What changes next week?
As of Monday, September 14, regional Victorians will advance to what has been dubbed the "second step".
It should be noted that "steps" and "stages" are completely separate, an issue which has led to some confusion.
Under the second step there are not many changes to the average person's day-to-day life.
Among the main changes will be:
- the allowance of public outdoor meetings between five people, involving just two households
- people living alone/single parents can have one nominated visitor into their home. This person cannot change throughout the second step
How do we get to the 'third step'?
The path to the third step relies solely on science.
There are two figures we need to reach in regional Victoria to advance to the third step.
- We need to achieve less than five new regional cases over a rolling average of 14 days (see graph below)
- There needs to be zero unknown cases detected in regional Victoria for 14 days
What changes will there be in in the 'third step'?
Under the third step, we will be able to live a more social life, although many businesses will still be severely impacted.
Travel restrictions within regional Victoria will be eased, reasons to leave home removed and larger outdoor gatherings allowed.
The key changes include:
- No restrictions on reasons to leave home
- Gatherings of up to 10 people outdoors
- You can have five visitors to your home, although they must from the one household that has been selected as your 'household bubble'. Your 'household bubble' cannot change. Infants under 12 months are not included in this figure.
- Outdoor hospitality venues will be able to open but with group limits of 10, as well as other density rules
- Accommodation venues to open, but with household bubble restrictions
- Weddings: allowed with up to 10 people (including the couple, two witnesses and celebrant).
- Funerals: allowed with up to 20 people (not including infants under 12 months of age or people required to conduct the funeral).
- Religion: outdoor religious gatherings for up to 10 people plus a faith leader are allowed, facilities open for private worship for households or social bubbles, plus a faith leader
- Real estate: private inspections by appointment only, auctions outdoors subject to gathering limits.
- Exercise: Outdoor contact and non-contact sport for under-18, outdoor non-contact sport only for adults, with gathering and density limits, outdoor skateparks open, outdoor fitness for 10 people.
How do we get to the 'last step' or 'fourth step'?
This is likely to be one of the main points of contention in regional Victoria.
In essence, regional Victorians will likely have to wait for metropolitan Melbourne to catch up in terms of the COVID-19 situation.
Even if there is scant evidence of COVID-19 in the regions (or none at all), it will depend on Melbourne.
In order to advance to the 'last step', there will need to be no new cases throughout the whole state of Victoria.
Importantly, we will also not be able to advance before November 23.
This is likely to generate angst in the regions if there are continually cases in Melbourne but not beyond.
What changes will there be in in the 'last step'?
The last step will involve the further reopening of society.
It will also be the biggest date for businesses to be able to open their doors.
The biggest rule changes will include:
- Public gatherings: up to 50 people outdoors.
- Visitors to the home: up to 20 visitors at a time
- Hospitality: indoor (group limit of 20 and seated service, cap 50 patrons), outdoor dining subject to density quotient
- Retail: all open.
- No exercise restrictions. facilities open subject to safety measures. Organised contacts sports resume for all ages. Limitations for spectators.
- Weddings: allowed with 50 people (including the couple, two witnesses and celebrant), 20 in a private residence.
- Funerals: allowed with 50 people (not including infants under 12 months of age or people required to conduct the funeral), 20 in a private residence.
- Religion: public worship (not including private ceremonies e.g. baptism, bat mitzvah) can resume in outdoor and indoor settings subject to density quotient.
The final step, what is 'COVID Normal'?
There is no date set on this yet, but it will relate strongly to the amount of virus that remains in the state.
Premier Daniel Andrews has made it no secret he wants this to be our situation for Christmas.
It seems a long way in the distance at the moment, but in order to advance to 'COVID Normal', there will need to be:
- no new cases for 28 days (state-wide)
- no active cases (state-wide)
- no outbreaks of concern in others states or territories
You can see the full regional government plan here.
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