But experts warn more people will die if restrictions are lifted too quickly.

Without stage one and three restrictions, Victoria was on track to hit up to 58,000 coronavirus cases per day at the peak of the outbreak.

The state's hospitals would have seen 10,000 intensive care beds filled and 7000 ventilators needed and 9200 people turning up to hospitals per day if people didn't socially isolate.

Victoria currently only has 450 fully equipped and staffed ICU beds.

READ MORE:

The impact of such a peak would have seen an average of 70 lives lost per day and up to 650 deaths per day. Under this modelling, some 36,000 Victorians would have died.

The state government report shows concern that even with a very small number of cases, coronavirus can spread rapidly if physical distancing is not observed and other measures are prematurely lifted.

"Any easing of restrictions must be done gradually to ensure the virus does not start spreading quickly and our health system does not become overwhelmed," the report reads.

"If we act too quickly or broadly to ease restrictions, the potential spread in our community would be rapid.

"These potential scenarios demonstrate the very real need for Victoria to maintain our current measures. If we lift restrictions too quickly our health system could soon become overwhelmed and people will die."

Victoria has 1336 coronavirus cases, 695 men and 641 women, an increase of seven from yesterday.

They include one person diagnosed in mandatory quarantine in city hotels who has recently arrived from overseas.

There are five cases in Warrnambool, two in Southern Grampians, one in Corangamite and one in Moyne.

There are 138 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Victoria that may have been acquired through community transmission. Currently 28 people are in hospital, including 12 patients in intensive care. 1202 people have recovered. More than 88,000 tests have been completed.

Of the total 1,336 cases, there have been 1,058 in metropolitan Melbourne and 241 in regional Victoria. Several cases remain under investigation.

Global coronavirus cases are at least 2,473,536, with at least 170,151 deaths and 645,019 recoveries.

Victoria's Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton said the recent daily fluctuations in the number of positive cases was due to an increase in the number of tests being completed and an increase in the number of travellers returning from overseas on repatriation flights.

"The increases we are seeing are still small and this is encouraging. They prove that our physical distancing measures are working but this is not a time to relax our strong approach as this disease can get away from you very quickly as we have seen in cities overseas," Professor Sutton said.

Key developments:

Our COVID-19 news articles relating to public health and safety are free for anyone to access. However, we depend on subscription revenue to support our journalism. If you are able, please subscribe here. If you are already a subscriber, thank you for your support.