Deakin University politics expert Geoff Robinson has some clear punting advice when it comes to the federal election.
Dr Robinson suggests the incumbent Member for Wannon Dan Tehan still represents good value for money, despite being given Winx-like odds to win re-election on May 18 by Sportsbet at $1.05, with several other agencies like TAB not running the south-west seat.
"I think that probably overstates Labor's chances and underplays Dan Tehan's even though it suggests he's a very strong favourite," he said.
"The Labor vote has been going up over the last 30 years as the coastal towns have got bigger. But there's still that very strong conservative vote inland and in those rural areas, which makes a pretty safe Liberal seat."
Labor candidate Maurice Billi has been given an outside chance to win at $8, while Greens candidate Zephlyn Taylor has apparently gained traction, with the 22-year-old university student improving from also-ran material at $61 on April 26 to genuine smoky at $21 this week.
Rounding out the five contenders is former Triple J darling turned political upstart Alex Dyson, $31, whose odds have remained steady since he announced his candidacy and the United Australia Party's Josh Wallace, who has drifted out from $51 in late April to $61 this week.
Sportsbet has the ALP as the strong favourite to win government at $1.14, with the Liberal Party coming in at $5.50, meaning the bookies have given Scott Morrison's government roughly the same chance at victory that they've given Carlton to defeat Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
But Robinson isn't convinced Sportsbet and other agencies are entirely on the money.
"The theory is that there's some kind of unique knowledge on the ground the people have about things going on, but I don't see much evidence of that," he said.
"It's not my intention to give betting advice in The Standard...but looking through the list I can see a few cases where Labor's position is overstated."
Robinson said Wannon, which has been held by the Liberal Party since Malcolm Fraser took over from Labor's Don McLeod in 1955, was unlikely to see a left-of-centre candidate take power any time soon.
"It used to be a marginal seat - there used to be a big Catholic vote for Labor, but that really moved away from the ALP in the 1950s...and since then it's been very secure," he said.
"It's not the sort of thing where you could see an independent making a challenge either, because there's enough of a Labor vote to make it hard to get ahead of them and the rural areas are pretty prosperous and secure as well.
"For example, there's no One Nation candidate - it's not good country for that kind of right-wing populism seen in other states."