Roma Britnell (Lib): 12,240, 32.3%

Kylie Gaston (Lab): 9250, 24.4%

James Purcell (Ind):: 6387, 16.9%

Mike Neoh (Ind): 3440, 9.1%

Jim Doukas (Country Party): 3100, 8.2%

Thomas Campbell (Greens): 2231, 5.9%

Joseph Purtill (DLP): 624, 1.6%

Michael McCluskey (Ind): 346, 0.9%

Terry Riggs (Socialist): 215, 0.6%

Two-party preferred: Britnell 52.4%, Gaston 47.6%

At 10.30pm: End of coverage – until tomorrow.

At 10.25pm: Independent candidate Michael Neoh said the result of South West Coast election was still up in the air.

He said preferences would be crucial and unpredictable.

"This is a very localised preference flow. You can't predict the end result on a statewide model," he said.

"If I was Labor candidate Kylie Gaston I would be pretty excited. 

​"I dont think it's over. I think Kylie is in a good spot. I wouldn’t like to be Roma Britnell."

Mr Neoh said he was unsure how Mrs Britnell could win when the majority of preferences did not flow her way and she only polled 32 percent of primary votes.

"If I was anyone I would want to be Kylie at this point," he said

"I was a bit disappointed in my own performance. James Purcell did very well to get 17 per cent and they've come from everyone.

"Kylie increased her Labor vote as well. James did well and he deserved to.

"He led the way showing what can be done and the advantages of making the seat marginal," he said.

​​At 10.10pm: South West Coast The Greens candidate Tom Campbell is tipping the Animal Justice Party will grab the fifth seat in the Upper House for Western Victoria.

He said that in 2014 James Purcell was able to leapfrog The Greens and it looked like a complex preference deal involving about a dozen minor parties would see The Greens just miss out again.

"It looks like a similar result to 2014," he said.

At 10.05pm: A spokeswoman for independent candidate James Purcell said the massive swing in South West Coast put the region in a far better position than it had been for a long time.

“We are now in line for the attention this region deserves from major political parties,” she said. 

At 9.55pm: South West Coast sitting Liberal member Roma Britnell is expected to hold the seat by about four percent.

With 72 percent of the vote counted, Mrs Britnell has 32.1% of first preferences. 

Labor’s Kyle Gaston has 24.83%, independent James Purcell 16.98%, independent Michael Neoh 8.64%, Jim Doukas (Country Party) 8.32%,  Tom Campbell (The Greens) 6%, Joseph Purtill (DLP) 1.72%, independent Michael McCluskey 0.84% and Terry Riggs (Victorian Socialists) 0.56%.

On two party preferred, Mrs Britnell is on 52.41% and Mrs Gaston 47.59%.

At 9.50pm: Statement from Roma Britnell: “I’m confident that early votes are going our way and that I’ll be re-elected,” she said.

“We’ve seen a huge swing against the Liberal Party statewide and that has had an impact locally. We will take the lessons away from this as a party.

“No matter what the result I’ll continue to work for our region, our home, as I have for the past three years,” she said.

It’s expected that on current voting trends Mrs Britnell will hold the seat by about four percent.

At 9.45pm: With almost 50 percent of the votes counted in the South West Coast election the final result is too close to call, although sitting Liberal member Roma Britnell is expected to just hold on.

Mrs Britnell has 31.46% of the first preference votes, Labor’s Kyle Gaston 24%, independent James Purcell 16.76%, Jim Doukas (Country Party) 8.99%, independent Michael Neoh 9.09%, Tom Campbell (The Greens) 6.48%, Joseph Purtill (DLP) 1.75%, independent Michael McCluskey 0.87% and Terry Riggs (Victorian Socialists) 0.58%.

At 9.25pm: ABC analyst Antony Green is saying sitting Liberal member Roma Britnell should be returned in the seat of South West Coast.

There’s still only 37% of the SWC vote counted but a large dump of pre-polling is expected to go into the system in minutes which should make the situation clearer.

Currently Mrs Britnell is polling only 31.5% of first preference votes. She got 40% of first preferences in the 2015 by-election.

At 9.15pm: The Greens are a chance to get the fifth Upper House seat in Western Victoria.

At 9.14pm: ​Warrnambool booths were generally very close, Liberal versus Labor, but a bit disappointing for independent James Purcell. 

Labor had a win in Portland and Mr Purcell had a win in Port Fairy, but could have been expected to poll even better there.

At 9.02pm: Liberal leader Matthew Guy has conceded defeat, saying it has been a stunning night for Daniel Andrews and his Labor party.

At 8.55pm: Liberal leader Matthew Guy has conceded defeat in the Victorian state election. Mr Guy called Daniel Andrews to congratulate him.

At 8.48pm: Liberal leader Matthew Guy is expected to concede defeat in the next 10 minutes.

At 8.45pm: With 37% of the election counted in the seat of South West Coast, the independents and minor parties have eaten into sitting member Roma Britnell’s vote.

Mrs Britnell looks like being returned but is only polling 32.52% of the primary vote – down from 40% in the 2015 by-election. 

The main aim of the independents and minor parties - to marginalise the seats – looks like that’s happened.

Labor’s Kyle Gaston has 24%, independent James Purcell 16.95%, Jim Doukas (Country Party) 9.37%, independent Michael Neoh 8.37%, Tom Campbell (The Greens) 6.56%, Joseph Purtill (DLP) 1.76%, independent Michael McCluskey 0.88% and Terry Riggs (Victorian Socialists) 0.59%.

At 8.40pm: In the seat of Polwarth, sitting Liberal member Richard Riordan is polling 50 percent of the vote and looks safe, well ahead of Labor’s Douglas Johnston, with The Greens’ Courtney Gardner (10.02%) the only other player with 54% of the vote counted.

At 8.25pm: If sitting Liberal member Roma Britnell can hold onto the seat of South West Coast, she’s a great chance to be in the shadow cabinet, such is the carnage for the Liberal Party across Victoria.

At 8.15pm: With almost 30 percent of the vote counted in the seat of South West Coast (13,906 of 47,000), sitting Liberal member Roma Britnell looks likely to hold on.

Mrs Britnell is polling 32 percent of the primary vote.

Labor’s Kyle Gaston has 25%, independent James Purcell 14.6%, Jim Doukas (Country Party) 9.5%, independent Michael Neoh 8.75%, Tom Campbell (The Greens) 6.4%, Joseph Purtill (DLP) 1.86%, independent Michael McCluskey 0.94% and Terry Riggs (Victorian Socialists) 0.67%.

In the two candidate preferred vote Mrs Britnell has 54% and Mrs Gaston 46%.

At 8.05pm: It’s expected that Labor leader Daniel Andrews will soon take the podium to claim victory.

At 8pm: With 9313 (or 19.61 percent of the total enrolment counted) Roma Britnell (Liberal) has 2931 votes or 33% of the vote, well ahead of Labor candidate Kyle Gaston, who has 2219 (25%).

Independant James Purcell has 1324 or 15%, Jim Doukas (Country Party) 10.36% and independent Michael Noeh 6.42%.

On two party prefered Mrs Britnell has 54% and Mrs Gaston 46%.

At 7.55pm: In South West Coast sitting Liberal member Roma Britnell looks likely to hold the seat. The ABC is calling her the winner at this early stage.

At 7.50pm: There’s talk of a big swing against the Liberal party in eastern Melbourne.

At 7.45pm: ABC analyst Antony Green says the Daniel Andrews Labor government will be returned.