Sitting members Jaala Pulford (Labor), Gayle Tierney (Labor) and Joshua Morris (Liberal) are all but guaranteed to be re-elected in the Western Victoria Region. Bev McArthur (Liberal) is also a certainty after being pre-selected to replace Simon Ramsay who stepped down after high-range drink driving charges were bought against him earlier this year. 

But neither of the two major parties will be able to win a third seat, say Deakin University’s Geoff Robinson and Monash University’s Nick Economou, which means the fifth seat will up for grabs among the Greens and 15 micro parties.

And this is where the political crystal gazing becomes difficult. 

Dr Robinson gave Mr Grimley a 60 per cent chance of winning the seat.

“I think it's likely to be Stuart Grimley … basically repeating Purcell's performance in the last election – maybe not getting that much of a primary vote, but doing well out of preferences.”

“But it is difficult to predict, because you've got all these micro parties competing, and if one of them finishes a single vote ahead at one stage in the count, then that can make a huge difference down the track.”

Dr Robinson added that on a “level playing field” the Greens would be expected to take the fifth seat, but preference swapping “artificially” puts the minor parties into contention. This is because, Dr Robinson said, Labor and Coalition preferences are going to the micro parties ahead of the Greens – who are 16th on the Coalition ticket and eighth on the Labor ticket. 

Dr Economou agreed Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party is in contention but said the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party has a stronger chance of winning, aided by a consistent brand and a relatively high position on both major parties’ ticket preferences.

“The Shooters and Fishers have been around for a number of elections and they are picking up the third right of centre seat in the Eastern and Northern regions, so there's no reason why they can't do it in the West as well,” Dr Economou said. 

"My feeling is that if they can survive long enough, they will get elected on Coalition preferences - I think they've got a better chance than anybody else."

He also noted Labor is preferencing the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party ahead of the Greens, mirroring a move in 2004 when it sent preferences to Steve Fielding (Family First) ahead of the Greens. 

Mr Purcell himself predicted the fifth seat will be won by either Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party or the Australian Country Party.