Melburnians may be tearing off the layers on the first hot day of the season but rain appears to be on the way for Cup Day.
The mercury is on track on Thursday to soar to 33C and the Bureau of Meteorology says some parts of the state, including Mildura and Swan Hill, will swelter as forecast tops edge near 40C.
A severe weather warning for damaging winds is in place for the southwest and parts of the central, east Gippsland, Mallee, northeast, west and south Gippsland and Wimmera districts.
While the official Cup Day forecast for Tuesday is not certain yet, showers are likely in the first half of the day with temperatures expected in the low 20s, senior meteorologist Chris Godfred says.
"There is an expectation of some rain across southeastern Australia, but for the moment it is very hard to precisely place where that rain's going to fall," Mr Godfred said.
"For the moment, we believe there'll be few showers particularly in the first half of day and temps in the low 20s.
"But I think it's really a case of watch this space."
Mr Godfred said the timing of the cold front and the behaviour of the rain band ahead of it will determine Tuesday's outlook.
Once the front arrives and brings a pool of cool air across the state, elevated areas could get snow late Wednesday and the early part of Thursday.
"This is pretty much spring in a nutshell, really," Mr Godfred said.
If you don't like the weather, then just wait a day or two.
"Once this front goes through during Tuesday, there is going to be a good pool of cool air in the wake of it.
"It will drive temperatures low enough for the possibility of some snow flurry about the Alpine peaks."
Australian Associated Press