The equation is simple when Merrivale meets Timboon Demons on Saturday.
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The Demons are clinging to fifth spot, while the Tigers are trying to claw their way into the top five.
Merrivale coach Jason Rowan knows the importance of the round 15 clash.
"We go into the game and it's do-or-die with our season on the line," he said.
"I have been doing the maths and all of the calculations, if we win we are in the five by percentage and if we drop this game our finals chances are finished.
"So it is a huge game for us and everybody is pumped up and looking forward to it.”
Statistics suggest it could be another close encounter.
The Warrnambool and District league has featured just nine games decided by three goals or less in 2018.
Merrivale and Timboon Demons have been involved in more of them than any other teams this season, playing in four each.
Only 10 points separated the two teams last time they met in round five, with the Demons victorious.
Rowan said the Tigers are anticipating a tough challenge.
"Coming off a close one against them last time I think it will be a blockbuster game," he said.
"They are very hard to play when you go down to Timboon and play on their deck, let alone if it is wet or dry.
"I think it's very even across the board, the midfield battle will be crucial.
“I think our firepower with our forwards, if we get enough ball to them we will kick a winning score."