The south-west’s Indian summer will come to a wintry end tomorrow, with temperatures set to drop to 18 degrees with up to 10 millimetres of rain expected to fall across the district. And it will be much of the same next week according to Bureau of Metrology forecaster Stephen King. 

Mr King said the above average temperatures the south-west had experienced over the past seven days would be replaced with temperatures in the low to mid teens from Monday.

He said the average temperature for May was about 19 degrees, with temperatures over the last week sitting about eight degrees above average. 

“A slow moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is the cause of the unseasonably warm temperatures,” Mr King said. 

“It’s a pattern you would expect to see in summer, with northerly winds.”

He said the pattern would persist today, with an expected top of 24. 

“On Sunday morning a strong low pressure system will move into Bass Strait, which will hang around for most of the week.

“We are expecting between five and 10 millimetres on Sunday, and showers throughout the week. 

“There is the chance for heavy rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday.” 

He said it was not the first time the region had experienced above average temperatures in May. 

“In 2002, the temperature sat in the high 20s between the second and the eighth (of May),” he said. 

While the rain expected will be good for gardens and lawns, the outlook for farmers isn’t as rosy. 

Bureau scientist Karl Braganza said the long range forecast for south east Australia issued on April 23 predicted it would be drier than normal for the next few months. 

The forecast said the chances of receiving below normal rainfall were 60 to 70 per cent in western and central Victoria, agricultural areas of South Australia and Tasmania. Mr Braganza said the chances of receiving good rainfalls improved after July.

“In late winter and spring, it’s more favourable for rain in the south-east of Australia,” he said.