By 2054, the number of Australians aged over the age of 65 will more than double to 8.9 million.
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The Department of Social Services says this figure is a result of Australians living longer and healthier lives and will see an unprecedented demand on welfare and aged care services.
A department spokeswoman said a growing number of people retired annually and age pension recipients were receiving payments for “far longer” than in the past.
As a result the number of taxpayers will be outweighed by a larger proportion of pension recipients.
Currently, 4.5 people of working age support every person aged 65 years and over. This will drop to 2.7 people by 2054–55.
National Commission of Audit projections, released in February 2014, found that without any changes in policy settings, age pension expenditure would rise from $39.5 billion in 2013-14 to $72.3 billion in 2023-24.
To address the growth, the Federal Government announced measures to make the pension system “fairer, better targeted and sustainable for the future”.
These include changes to the income test and rebalancing the assets test parameters. Increasing the pension qualifying age is subject to legislation and aligning means testing arrangements with residential aged care.
Warrnambool City Council city growth director Andrew Paton says while there would be future financial and services challenges, it was also an opportunity for economic development.
“The forecast growth is a national phenomenon,” he said.
“South-west councils and municipalities are reflecting that already.
“We need to make sure the services fit the demand. That creates jobs.”
The State Government predicts the number of residents aged 65 or older across the Barwon South Western region will increase to 37 per cent by 2051, while those older than 75 years will rise to 15.4 per cent by 2036.
Mr Paton said the health care and social assistance sector was the city's largest, employing more than 2500 people.
“Aged care is a big part of that,” he said.
He said finding the money to maintain opportunities for growth would be challenging. But with Warrnambool being the region’s health hub, he believed it was well-placed to respond to the demand.
“We’ve had upgrades to the hospital, the opening of the cancer centre, expansions at Mercy Place and Opal Gillin Park and the waterfront apartments development at Lyndoch,” he said.
“So we’re seeing facilities responding already.”
Mr Paton said there was plenty of residential zoned land for across five growth areas, which would create future development opportunities.
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