Dairy farmers are being advised by researchers to adapt to predicted climate changes.
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The weather will only get drier, hotter and more variable which will affect dairy production, according to Dairy Australia.
WestVic Dairy’s Land, Water and Carbon consultant Graeme Ward said climate change would gradually bring warmer weather, making dairy “less profitable”.
“Dairy farmers will need to have better management skills into the future,” he said.
“Shorter growing seasons will lead to less feed growing on farms… a greater conservation of hay and silage will cause farmers to seek more outside forage.”
Dairy Australia’s three-year-long Dairy Business for Future Climates (DBFC) research project was concluded in July with lower profits a result of climate change predictions.
The project modelled three farms in different regions and tested three development options at each site. Researchers were then able to forecast on-farm changes in the lead-up to 2040.
“More important than the gradual change is the increased frequency of extreme events,” Mr Ward said. “More frequent and severe drought years are predicted with bigger effects.”
Dairy Australia have advised farms to prepare for long-term solutions.
“Farmers are going to have to be good managers to still be profitable in (the 2040) environment,” he said.
“In the bad years they’re not going to be profitable at all and management to get through those years is going to be necessary.”
The DBFC project modelled the performance of dairy farms in Central Gippsland, Victoria, north-west Tasmania and Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia under three different management systems.
Mr Ward said the South Australian model reflected dairy farms in the south-west.
Options for on-farm changes included an increased reliance on purchase feed, decreasing that reliance or adapting cow numbers without increasing out-sourced feed.
South Australia and Victoria responded to changes in pasture growth patterns predicted for the 2040 climate through methods of adaption.
Dairy Australia said it did not expected dairy farmers to sudden changes but advised them to weigh the evidence against their own experience.