The Victoria in the Future 2016 document shows Warrnambool and the south-west’s ageing population will grow from 21,400 to 36,600 seniors – an increase of 71 per cent across the next 35 years.

The senior citizen demographic spike across the next decade comes as the baby boomer generation enters retirement. 

Leading Age Services Australia chief executive Sean Rooney said an increasing ageing population required sufficient planning to ensure the right policy settings would deliver the required retirement villages, residential aged care, home and community care and infrastructure to meet future needs.

“To meet demand, the Barwon south-west region will need an additional 2074 residential aged care places at an estimated cost of $519 million and an additional 2324 home care packages,” Mr Rooney said.

“We have a moral obligation to ensure our seniors, who built our nation, obtain the best possible outcome for their health, well-being and quality of life by receiving due attention from government across all portfolios.”

The percentage of people aged over 65 in Corangamite shire will rise from from 19 to 29.9 per cent, while Moyne’s will grow from 15.9 to 26.7 per cent.

Across the state the senior population is increasing and heading towards an age structure which is decidedly greyer, with a greater representation of seniors.

Overall population numbers in Moyne are predicted to grow, while Corangamite will decrease. The number of residents in Moyne is set to reach 17,400 in 2031 – up from 16,200 in 2011.

Corangamite’s population will drop from 16,500 in 2011 to 14,200 in 2031 with an annual decrease of about 0.8 per cent.

Victoria is projected to have 10.1 million people by 2051, with eight million in the greater Melbourne region and 2.1 million in regional areas.

The VIF 2016 projections provide information about population change across the state, however, they are not predictions of the future. 

The projections show the likely future given continuation of current trends, incorporating known constraints and opportunities for growth. Growth and change is not evenly distributed across Victoria. 

Greater Melbourne attracts the bulk of Victoria’s overseas migrants, and due to its large share of the population (76 per cent in 2015) and its younger population, also accounts for the majority of the natural increase. These trends are likely to continue and Greater Melbourne is projected to have almost 85 per cent of the state’s growth up to 2051.