What did surprise was that the other key speaker was former Prime Minister John Howard who was frank, informative and self-effacing. While his story on George W Bush was riveting I think I stole the show with an anecdote on drug dealer Carl Williams getting shot in the guts. You could have heard a pin drop.

The bigger surprise was when we were to be bussed from the venue the former PM jumped on board, found the first vacant seat and spent the 15-minute trip chatting to the bloke next to him.

There were no airs, graces, limousines or security blanket. It is at times like that you feel so lucky to live in a country where we are relatively free from violence.

And largely we have John Howard to thank. His gun reforms post the Port Arthur Massacre 20 years ago have saved an unknown number of lives. It was a brave political decision, leaving a legacy for which we should be grateful and he justifiably proud.

Back then a lunatic called Martin Bryant opened fire at the Tasmanian tourist spot killing 35 and wounding another 23 without ever expressing a motive.

Today, internationally and locally, the bewildered and the mentally unstable are increasingly trying to cloak their murderous intents behind perverted political ideologies, usually, but not exclusively, Islamic extremism.

We seem too fixated with branding mass killers under one flag or another. Was Omar Mateen, the Orlando gunman who killed 49, an Islamic State supporter or a sexually conflicted homicidal nutbag?

Certainly logic was not his strong suit for if he had thrown his lot in with the IS barbarians they would have killed him at the first hint of homosexuality.

Equally, Sydney's Lindt cafe gunman Man Haron Monis carried out his murderous siege under the pretence of an Islamic cause. The truth was he was a violent sex offender craving attention. And he got the double – headlines and a headstone.

Regardless of names, causes or methods, the situation here is grim and likely to get worse, according to Assistant Commissioner (Counter Terrorism) Ross Guenther.

He says while our gun laws and geographic isolation have slowed the seeping stain of terrorism, with Melbourne and Sydney prime targets, it will not stop it.

The irony is as we win internationally we are more likely to lose ground domestically. Guenther says every IS defeat on the battlefield increases the probability heavily indoctrinated and battle-hardened fighters with Australian passports will return here to continue the war.

It will also increase the risks for Australians who work or holiday in Asia when an influx of ex IS soldiers flood back to Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Guenther is just back from studying the growing European terror crisis. The European experts told him that they had been in exactly Australia's position less than five years ago and we should expect to head down the same violent path.

While our distance and borders help, the internet has shrunk the world and as Guenther points out, the IS message can be pumped out of a Middle Eastern cave into the middle-Melbourne bedroom of a disaffected teenager.

And the dark web means guns can be ordered with one provider claiming, "We have overcome our delivery issues into Australia".

Counter Terrorism Command (now up to full strength) has identified 300 potential offenders in Victoria and its two full-time forensic psychologists grade the risks from egotistical blowhards who talk a good game to ones with the potential to kill.

"It is like being a soccer goalkeeper with 20 balls in play. You just hope you can keep them out," says Guenther, who clearly doesn't aspire to play for England against Iceland.

The list includes fixated persons, mentally ill, right and left-wing extremists and Islamic radicals. And in the past five years the average age of the suspects has dropped by 10 years – with the young and impressionable as dangerous as the hardened and committed.

Guenther's team look for triggerpoints such as:

Episodes of mental illness.

Dislocation from peer group or mainstream society.

Identifying with parent's cultural/religious background even when Australian born.

Finding solace or a supportive audience online.

Exhibiting a strong need to belong to something that fills a social void.

The development of an extremist ideology that gives the individual a purpose, a place in life and a role.

Such signs can easily be misread with Guenther saying, "Parents are often unaware of the radicalisation as it appears their child has become focused on being a good Muslim".

There are UK cases of young people radicalised in less than seven days, forcing police to move immediately.

This means decisions are made every day whether to act or monitor. Guenther says police may intervene rather than arrest preferring to disrupt a group rather than allow them to organise to the point of attack. "Our job is to stop it happening," he says.

This is why the Victorian Government is considering introducing preventive detention laws similar to those in NSW that allow police to arrest and hold terror suspects for up to 14 days without charges.

But if you keep marching into homes on suspicion you risk long-term alienation making some Muslims feel unwanted in their own country.

Then there is the backlash in countries with a rich history of tolerance and integration – such as the United States with Donald Trump's ramblings on Muslims and Mexicans and the United Kingdom, where the decision to leave the EU is said to be partially based on immigration.

Here the mainstream remains magnificently apathetic despite the best efforts of the dog whistlers. But that could change in a heartbeat when there is a large-scale local terrorist attack.

This brings us to our own local ultra patriots – an insignificant group with as much pull as the Illinois Nazis in The Blues Brothers. On the other side we have protests organised by anarchists. Do we not see the irony there? They couldn't organise a gluten-free cake sale.

Both sides need to clash to create publicity for they crave attention from the very institutions they claim to despise. The state government has flagged new laws to stop protesters wearing disguises with Guenther saying the only reason demonstrators hide their faces is "because they have an intention to commit crime".

Indeed the only legitimate places where one should wear balaclavas are in a formula one vehicle, on the snowfields of Mt Hotham or at a swingers' party in Mentone. (It is fair to say your correspondent would prove spectacularly inept at all three pastimes).

The NSW police strategy during the 2014 Lindt Cafe siege is the subject of much coronial scrutiny but it has already changed the way Australian police will respond to such threats.

For more than 25 years police have successfully cordoned and contained sieges believing (rightly) the longer an incident runs the more likely it will end peacefully.

Under cordon and contain the first police on scenes are to coral the problem and wait for the experts, which include professional negotiators and combat-trained police such as the Special Operations Group.

It is now accepted terrorists will never negotiate and either will start killing hostages immediately or will drag a siege out to maximise publicity.

Police dealing with terror attacks are therefore moving from negotiation to confrontation. The optimistic talk of hostage rescue; the realistic of casualty reduction.

Police are undergoing active shooter training so the first on the scene may be assigned to rescue hostages. Patrol officers, who are essentially trained peacekeepers with limited firearm experience, may be asked to act as combat troops under fire.

"First responders have an obligation to take action to prevent more people from dying. This will mean they will be placing themselves at risk," says Guenther.

In last year's Paris Bataclan Theatre attack where 89 hostages were killed the first at the scene was a local superintendent and his driver. The senior policeman used his handgun to shoot one of the terrorists detonating the offender's explosive vest.

The superintendent withdrew when he saw the rest of the terrorists were armed with automatic weapons leaving the theatre to be stormed by SWAT trained officers.

The specialists now agree that direct action, moving in with an element of surprise, is safer than waiting only to be forced into emergency action after shots are fired.

The SOG may well follow the European method of using purpose-built motorbikes to get quickly to siege points followed by equipment vehicles.

A series of senior officers have also been trained to provide snipers with intelligence on suspects so a decision can be made on whether to shoot.

All the new strategies come down to one thing. If you involve yourself in a terror attack you may not be going to paradise with a truckload of virgins but you will be going to the morgue in a body bag.