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The well-worn story of the birth of Wannon’s deep-seated conservatism, which has its roots in the 1950s, sheds light on the current disposition of the safe Liberal electorate.
Associate professor Kevin O’Toole, a former Deakin University Warrnambool campus politics lecturer, traced the conservative voting tradition to the 1955 split in the Labor Party.
He said strong Catholicism in the south-west was significant because following the split people started voting for the Democratic Labor Party, which was largely made up of Catholic members.
“Once the Democratic Labor Party disappeared (in 1978) they all migrated to the conservative parties,” Mr O’Toole said.
He said the recent generations had followed their parents’ voting patterns.
"Generally, you'll get big swings when you get big changes in demographics, and there’s not much change in the demographic down here,” he said.
Mr O’Toole said the seat had not always had a conservative identity, and parts of electorate such as Ararat and Portland still displayed strong support for the Labor Party.
“Before 1955 this area down here was strongly Labor,” Mr O’Toole said.
“There were the shearers and the shearers’ unions were very strong down in this area.”
Generally you'll get big swings when you get big changes in demographics, but there's not much change in the demographic down here.
- Associate professor Kevin O'Toole