The so-called Godzilla El Nino has meant an early start to the bushfire season. How long will it last, and when will it peak?

Out-of-control bushfires this early in the season are highly unusual – and an ominous sign, says Peter Rau, chief officer with the Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Services Board. With the El Nino weather pattern causing a heat build-up in the centre of Australia that pushes south, raising temperatures, drying soils and whipping up strong winds, the season's duration and intensity can only be limited by decent rain. None is being forecast for October or November, Rau says, and the El Nino is predicted to be nearly as strong as 1997-98.

City slickers: with warnings of extreme bush fire danger this summer, Melburnians should plan their city and holiday safety, experts warn. Photo: Angela Wylie

Where in regional Victoria will the risks be highest?

Mr Rau says Emergency Services is particularly concerned about central and western Victoria but that the rest of Victoria will progressively dry out and will be at risk of bushfire.

What about Melburnians. Is it only those who live or work in the hills that need a fire safety plan?

The hilly and heavily treed suburbs around the Dandenongs east of Melbourne and northern suburbs around Warrandyte and Eltham are popularly understood to be at greater risk of bushfires because of their heavy vegetation and access difficulties in an emergency. However the Metropolitan Fire Brigade has a map on its website and list of bushland parks that show areas of bushfire risk in urban Melbourne are more widely distributed than just the peri-urban fringe.

The map highlight numerous metropolitan areas where there are significant parks, reserves, wooded beachfront, or bushland along rivers and creeks. Areas of bushfire risk range from Sandringham, Black Rock, Beaumaris and Cheltenham in the south, to Mount Waverley, Burwood, Blackburn, Vermont, Ringwood and Croydon in the east.

In Melbourne's north, risk areas cluster in suburbs adjacent to the Yarra Valley, but also occur in Watsonia, Bundoora, Mill Park, Campbellfield and Meadow Heights; in the west, Calder Park and suburbs adjacent to the Maribyrnong River such as Keilor Downs and Sunshine North are potentially at risk as are some Newport residents.

Even the central business district is not immune to bushfire risk: the MFB map shows Fairfield near Merri Creek as a potential hot spot.

"Its really important that Melburnians have an active fire plan – it's not only for people in the bush," Mr Rau says.

Smoke signals: haze from bushfire covers Melbourne CBD in February 2014. Photo: Eddie Jim

What kind of fire plans should those who live or work in areas of urban fire risk have?

The MFB advises people should:

Monitor weather conditions and check the Fire Danger Ratings daily; 
Have a plan: when and how you will decide to stay or go, what you'll take, where you'll go and and how you'll stay in touch with family, friends and neighbours (mobile phone);
Prepare your property (tips online);
If a fire starts on adjacent grassland, move a few streets back;
If a fire starts on  grassland a few streets away, stay indoors as it's unlikely to spread beyond the first row of properties;
If a fire starts on adjacent or nearby bushland, the risks are greater and it is safer to spend high risk days in built-up areas away from the threat.
Act early – don't wait for a warning.
Keep roads clear for emergency services to respond

Invisible city: smoke from a bushfire shrouds the silhouette of Melbourne CBD in February 2014. Photo: Eddie Jim

What about non-residents and workers. Should day-trippers avoid the Dandenongs or Fairfield Park on risky days?

Check your destination's Fire Danger Rating for the day, which tells people how a fire would behave if one started.  The higher the rating, the more dangerous the conditions. "On a day of extreme or code red, I'd make an early decision not to go – I wouldn't put myself into an area where there is the potential of a fire," Mr Rau says.

Surely the proximity of fire stations in built-up areas with good road networks such as Sandringham, Burwood, Newport and Fairfield means the risks from fires in urban areas are pretty small?

If a fire was to burn an inner urban bushfire reserve, the reserve may be small but will have many properties that back on to it. Congestion on roads as cars try to get out and fire trucks try to get in can also delay an emergency response. The MFB will be facing other challenges on days of high fire danger too, attending people trapped in trains as infrastructure fails, for example, or triple-zero medical emergencies as heatstroke and heart attacks spike (many people are unaware firefighters also attend these medical emergencies as part of their normal operating procedure). Other MFB firefighters will be assisting CFA colleagues fighting bushfires in the regions. In short, although there are 47 fire stations throughout the metropolitan area, with 2200 employees, metropolitan fire services will always be stretched by other emergencies on the highest risk days.

What about people planning holidays in rural Victoria. What should tourists in high risk areas do to prepare for a bushfire?

Travellers could be on the road on days of high fire risk, staying in places they are unfamiliar with. They should understand the local conditions where they're travelling or staying – how close they are to bush or grassland, what the exit routes are – and make their fire plan accordingly. "If you're staying down the Great Ocean Road and it's a code red day and your plan is not to stay and protect your holiday house, then leave – go the movies in Geelong for the day," Mr Rau says. Most importantly, know where to get the information you need to make good decisions about your own safety.

FURTHER INFORMATION

Fire Danger Ratings are updated online at emergency.vic.gov.au, via the FireReady Smartphone app, or by calling the Victorian Bushfire Information line on 1800 240 667

CFA advice on how to prepare your property