WESTERN Victoria will be hotter and winter and spring seasons drier later this century, according to climate change projections by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.
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There will also be more extreme rainfall “events”, harsher fire weather and continued rises in sea levels, according to the State of the Climate report released yesterday.
The projections are described as the most comprehensive ever released for Australia, drawing information from simulations based on up to 40 global climate models.
“There is very high confidence that hot days will become more frequent and hotter,” CSIRO principal scientist Kevin Hennessy said.
Its projections for western Victoria show “very high confidence” average temperatures will continue to increase in all seasons with more hot days and warm spells.
For the years to 2030, annually averaged warming across all scenarios is projected to be around 0.4 to 1.1 degrees above the 1986-2005 climate and by late in the century (2090) it is tipped to be 2.4-3.8 degrees hotter under a high-emission scenario and 1.1-1.9 degrees hotter under an intermediate scenario.
Sea levels are projected with “very high confidence” to continue to rise, bringing an increase in extreme sea level events.
From 1966 to 2009 the average rate of relative sea level rise for Australia was 1.4 millimetres a year. By 2030 it is tipped to be 0.08 to 0.18 of a metre above the 2005 level, with only minor differences between emissions scenarios.
However, by 2090 the level is tipped to rise by 0.29-0.64m on an intermediate emissions case and 0.39-0.84 on high-case emissions.
Sea surface temperature is projected to rise by 1.6-3.4 degrees by 2090 under high emissions and the water to become more acidic.
There is “high confidence” of fewer frosts, lower winter and spring rainfall and “possible but less clear” changes to summer and autumn rain.
High confidence was also projected for increased intensity of extreme rainfall episodes and a harsher fire weather climate.
Droughts are projected with “medium confidence” to increase during the century.
“Projected rainfall decreases over western Victoria are up to 25 per cent in winter and up to 45 per cent in spring by 2090 under high emissions,” the report said.
