Speaking at the opening yesterday of new facilities at the Victorian Emergency Management Training Centre at Penshurst, Mr Ferguson said the south-west had experienced a dry August and September but the forecast was for normal rainfall in October. Next month’s rainfall would have a big impact on grass and crop growth, the condition of bush areas and the subsequent fire risk, he said.

Mr Ferguson said the summer forecast for the south-west was for average rainfall and an average fire season, while lower than normal rainfall and an above-average fire risk were predicted for the north-west, including the Wimmera and Mallee.

However, Mr Ferguson said “it will be another four to six weeks before we will be able to make a more definitive prediction about the coming fire season”. But he said there was high risk of heatwaves next summer with overall day and night temperatures throughout south-east Victoria forecast to be above average.

The likelihood of heatwaves meant not only a risk of fires, but highlighted the need for  people to prepare for the safety of the vulnerable such as the very old and the very young, the ill or frail and those with mobility problems. 

Mr Ferguson said the present weather conditions meant farmers and other property owners in high bushfire-risk locations should start fire protection planning immediately, particularly if they were planning fire breaks.

“Do it now while the grass is green,” Mr Ferguson said.

“It’s not too early to start reducing the fuel load around the farm.”

The spell of warm dry weather immediately ahead was also likely to encourage more farmers to burn off but they should notify the burn-off hotline to avoid any unnecessary brigade call-outs and embarrassment, Mr Ferguson said.