Victoria's crime rate has increased for the third consecutive year, but Police Minister Kim Wells reckons improved reporting and more cops on the beat are responsible for the 3.7 per cent rise.
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Only four years ago, then opposition leader Ted Baillieu seized on soaring rates of assault, murder and rape during the Brumby government's 10-year tenure to depict Melbourne as the nation's crime capital.
The strategy tapped into a growing disquiet about public safety, particularly on the city's rail network, and Mr Baillieu's pledge of 1700 more police and 940 protective service officers helped sweep him to power.
But the Liberal government's law and order message has been blunted by more inconvenient data from Victoria Police, while a series of new "tough-on-crime" announcements over the past fortnight appear increasingly desperate.
Police crime statistics are notoriously pliable, and the Napthine government is not the only group to exploit them for political gain.
Following a massive spike in crimes associated with methamphetamine, Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews announced an "ice action taskforce" and a range of new criminal offences on Wednesday.
The strategy appears to have been pinched directly from the government's play-book and would only be introduced within 100 days of Mr Andrews taking office - if he wins the November election.
He conceded the "ice epidemic has absolutely got away from us", but expects Victorians to wait 100 days for a policy to be implemented.
Only last year, Labor's then police spokesperson Jacinta Allan accused the government of delaying its response by appointing a parliamentary review.
"Victoria is in the middle of an ice epidemic and it is time the Napthine government took action instead of deferring the issue off to a parliamentary committee," Ms Allan said last September.
The Drugs and Crime Prevention Committee is expected to table its report next week. One would have expected its findings to shape any coherent policy response to a problem that is devastating families across the state.
Chief Commissioner Ken Lay also used the alarming surge in ice-related crimes and domestic violence to promote his "Blue Paper," which outlines a radical vision for a more specialised force with fewer front line officers.
"We cannot arrest our way out of the ice problem" Chief Commissioner Lay said.
His comments will probably rankle the government and its tough-on-crime agenda, but he makes a good point.
Without profound social and cultural change, police and governments of either persuasion will be unable to combat ice use or domestic violence. And crime rates will invariably rise again.
chouston@fairfaxmedia.com.au
