Unusually for a first-term administration, the Napthine government is likely to lose with a new Galaxy poll yesterday predicting Daniel Andrews will be premier before Christmas.

This latest prediction is hardly an aberration.

Fairfax-Nielsen and Newspoll have consistently placed the state opposition ahead of the government this year, although the gap has narrowed in recent months.

The question is why? 

Australian voters are generally willing to forgive first-term mistakes and hand either Coalition or Labor governments a second chance.

But the last four years in Spring Street has been somewhat of a rollercoaster ride.

When Ted Baillieu surprisingly won power in November 2010, triumphing against the supposedly invincible John Brumby, the political pundits predicted the Coalition would be in power for two terms at least.

That was a long time ago. Back then, when Denis Napthine made his return to the cabinet table, he was a largely forgotten figure with a grab-bag of portfolios. 

New Frankston MP Geoff Shaw was even less well known. Times have changed.

In a media environment where state politics gets less attention than ever before, Shaw has been a consistent headline-grabber.

From the controversy over vehicle expenses, to his anti-abortion rhetoric, to his altercation with an elderly taxi driver — Australians outside of Victoria are more aware of Shaw than either Napthine or Andrews.

He played a pivotal role in bringing Baillieu down and forcing veteran MP Ken Smith from the speaker’s chair.

There was a moment a few months back when it seemed Napthine was next.

The threat remains given Shaw has to make a public apology to State Parliament next month and his public statements on the expenses scandal are void of contrition.

What is clear is that Victorians want to see Shaw gone.

What is unclear is whether voters see the state government as guilty by association.