Polling at the forum, organised by The Standard, on Monday night indicated that three of Wannon’s five independents — Ralph Leutton, James Purcell and Katrina Rainsford — would hold 41 per cent of the vote.

The Liberal Party still polled a healthy 46 per cent of audience participants but the figure would not be enough to form a majority and would have to rely of one or more of the independents to get across the line.

If these figures are replicated at the federal election, the Liberal Party would face a negative six per cent swing and Labor support would be eroded by a 28 per cent swing against the government.

With no one candidate polling more than 55 per cent, it would make Wannon a marginal electorate and if no runner passed the 50 per cent mark then the election would come down to preferences.

In The Standard’s poll — the only survey so far of voting intentions in Wannon — Liberal Daniel Tehan received 69 votes out of the 151 ballots indicating a preference for a candidate. Mr Leutton was second on 30 votes and Mr Purcell third with 22.

Labor would face electoral annihilation at the August 21 federal election if the audience trend is correct, with the party’s candidate Judith McNamara receiving only eight per cent approval.

The Greens would face only a small reduction in primary support, with candidate Lisa Owen gaining close to five per cent of voters on Monday night.

The Standard understands that two or more of the independents will work as a bloc to make the seat marginal if Wannon has no outright winner on election night.

Mr Leutton and Mr Tehan were declared joint winners in an exclusive analysis of the runners conducted by Deakin University associate professor Kevin O’Toole for The Standard.

Professor O’Toole said many of the audience came to the debate with their voting intentions decided.